I had guessed privately, and I was two-for-three... I had pegged Krika, Eli, and Dryu as mafia. Krika and Eli were both under the same logic - they managed to deflect ALL suspicion from them, which made them perfect suspects in my mind.
Also, as I'll note below, I was two-for-two in my correct guesses for town.
As promised, my logic for Dryu, which I teased folks about on Twitter. It came down to this post...
Dryunya wrote:I am kinda tempted to off Sicon just to be on the safe side. Then again, if he's innocent, his planning would prove invaluable.
Hmmm.
- If Sicon is innocent, we probably win.
- If Sicon is mafia, we probably lose.
- If Sicon is dead, we may still win.
UPD: I checked the first post, and turns out that we have a tie (as you've probably noticed by now
). We have one more vote to be a possible tiebreaker, and it's Xana's. If we don't decide, no one dies, and, as counter-intuitive as it seems,
it's bad for us.
Dryu was ultimately too intent on establishing himself as town - he didn't make any sort of qualifying statements as to "if you trust me as town" or anything like that. Because he operated so intently on the prospect that he was town, he struck me as the most likely to be mafia.
The flip side to that, of course, was that this establishment meant that his intent to get rid of Sicon clearly meant that Sicon was a town member. This basically meant that Sicon was a marked man, *especially* after Dryu was lynched and revealed as Mafia (i.e. I knew that, once Dryu was lynched, Sicon was going to be taken out that night). As a side note, the fact that Sicon was marked for death after that lynching had me convinced that one of the previously-killed townfolk was the doctor, because I thought Pix would have moved to save Sicon after said lynching if he was honest. It occurred to me that not everyone had the same train of thought as me afterwards.
Now, for the other townsperson I knew wasn't Mafia, Pix. Now, mind you, I did think he was lying about being the doctor because he didn't move to save Sicon when the latter was all but marked for death. That said, it was a theoretically brilliant move to come out as the doctor even if you weren't. There's a perverse logic in that the bigger target you make of yourself in this game, the less likely you should be targeted by the other side (Qara caught on to this and played it perfectly). Thus, I think that declaring himself doctor should have kept Pix alive for one day and one night - the townsfolk should have seen it as too much of a risk if he was mafia (they'd get even more fiendish to take out townsfolk after that) and the mafia should have seen him as too much of a risk as well (because he had been ineffective at his role so far, plus it puts more suspicion on anyone Pix opposed).
That said, how did I get Pix as town instead of mafia? Simple - at that point in the game, the mafia has nearly won. They can play conservatively and still pull off the victory. Pix's maneuver is a bold move that's best played either early (to buy yourself one more night) or if you're losing late (to potentially forestall defeat). The town was on the downswing late, so the latter option was correct - Pix was on the losing side, and therefore town.
Finally, I note the irony in Jack and Qara trying to get info on my thoughts on mafia members during the Pathfinder game when *both* were mafia and were basically trying to figure out if I pegged either of them (for the record, I hadn't).
I smiled when the wall was built, for I knew we were creating something incredible. And I smiled when it cracked, for the world would soon see what we had wrought.
)
