Forum Mafia: Round 2

Anything goes.

Re: Forum Mafia: Round 2

Postby narrativedilettante on Fri Jun 27, 2014 6:34 pm

Sophira wrote:I'll admit, what I find interesting is that even after my analysis saying that Endless was probably innocent, Dilly still decided to switch. I'm curious - why did you do that, Dilly?


To be honest, I hadn't even noticed your analysis coming to that conclusion. As a general rule, I don't read other players' analyses too closely. People have a good chance of either being outright mistaken about what's going on, or actively trying to mislead other players. You could have been Mafia trying to make me vote for an innocent.

As another general rule, I don't analyze things too carefully, because I find it's easy to get caught up in the analysis, get attached to early conclusions which blind me to later clues, and get frustrated with myself and all the other players.

As a third general rule, I prefer a lynch day to a no-lynch day. When I saw that if no one did anything, it meant we'd have a day without a lynch, I decided to change my vote. I wish I'd handled it differently; I could have voted for someone other than Endless, avoiding the insta-lynch and possibly triggering a different outcome. But after Pixel was lynched that one day despite obviously being the Doctor and no one changed their votes in time to save him (my vote in that circumstance couldn't have been changed in a way that would help the situation) I didn't think I could count on anyone else changing their votes, so I felt like I had to step up and do something.
Never put off until tomorrow what you can put off until the day after.
User avatar
narrativedilettante
Meta-Robin
 
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2012 11:07 am

Re: Forum Mafia: Round 2

Postby Anura on Fri Jun 27, 2014 6:41 pm

I considered announcing MyLo (Mislynch and Lose), but that would announce to the world the exact number of Mafia involved. Of course, no-lynch would have lead to LyLo (Lynch or Lose) the next day.
User avatar
Anura
 
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2012 7:04 am
Location: Hastings, United Kingdom

Re: Forum Mafia: Round 2

Postby Rick Healey on Fri Jun 27, 2014 7:30 pm

I had guessed privately, and I was two-for-three... I had pegged Krika, Eli, and Dryu as mafia. Krika and Eli were both under the same logic - they managed to deflect ALL suspicion from them, which made them perfect suspects in my mind.

Also, as I'll note below, I was two-for-two in my correct guesses for town.

As promised, my logic for Dryu, which I teased folks about on Twitter. It came down to this post...

Dryunya wrote:I am kinda tempted to off Sicon just to be on the safe side. Then again, if he's innocent, his planning would prove invaluable.

Hmmm.
  • If Sicon is innocent, we probably win.
  • If Sicon is mafia, we probably lose.
  • If Sicon is dead, we may still win.
:roll:

UPD: I checked the first post, and turns out that we have a tie (as you've probably noticed by now :( ). We have one more vote to be a possible tiebreaker, and it's Xana's. If we don't decide, no one dies, and, as counter-intuitive as it seems, it's bad for us.


Dryu was ultimately too intent on establishing himself as town - he didn't make any sort of qualifying statements as to "if you trust me as town" or anything like that. Because he operated so intently on the prospect that he was town, he struck me as the most likely to be mafia.

The flip side to that, of course, was that this establishment meant that his intent to get rid of Sicon clearly meant that Sicon was a town member. This basically meant that Sicon was a marked man, *especially* after Dryu was lynched and revealed as Mafia (i.e. I knew that, once Dryu was lynched, Sicon was going to be taken out that night). As a side note, the fact that Sicon was marked for death after that lynching had me convinced that one of the previously-killed townfolk was the doctor, because I thought Pix would have moved to save Sicon after said lynching if he was honest. It occurred to me that not everyone had the same train of thought as me afterwards.

Now, for the other townsperson I knew wasn't Mafia, Pix. Now, mind you, I did think he was lying about being the doctor because he didn't move to save Sicon when the latter was all but marked for death. That said, it was a theoretically brilliant move to come out as the doctor even if you weren't. There's a perverse logic in that the bigger target you make of yourself in this game, the less likely you should be targeted by the other side (Qara caught on to this and played it perfectly). Thus, I think that declaring himself doctor should have kept Pix alive for one day and one night - the townsfolk should have seen it as too much of a risk if he was mafia (they'd get even more fiendish to take out townsfolk after that) and the mafia should have seen him as too much of a risk as well (because he had been ineffective at his role so far, plus it puts more suspicion on anyone Pix opposed).

That said, how did I get Pix as town instead of mafia? Simple - at that point in the game, the mafia has nearly won. They can play conservatively and still pull off the victory. Pix's maneuver is a bold move that's best played either early (to buy yourself one more night) or if you're losing late (to potentially forestall defeat). The town was on the downswing late, so the latter option was correct - Pix was on the losing side, and therefore town.

Finally, I note the irony in Jack and Qara trying to get info on my thoughts on mafia members during the Pathfinder game when *both* were mafia and were basically trying to figure out if I pegged either of them (for the record, I hadn't).
I smiled when the wall was built, for I knew we were creating something incredible. And I smiled when it cracked, for the world would soon see what we had wrought.
User avatar
Rick Healey
Puppetmaster
 
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:13 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

Re: Forum Mafia: Round 2

Postby Anura on Fri Jun 27, 2014 8:05 pm

Jack and Qara trying to get info on my thoughts on mafia members during the Pathfinder game


Consulting an outside source?! You fiends, I should have you disqualified!!
User avatar
Anura
 
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2012 7:04 am
Location: Hastings, United Kingdom

Re: Forum Mafia: Round 2

Postby Rick Healey on Fri Jun 27, 2014 8:50 pm

Anura wrote:
Jack and Qara trying to get info on my thoughts on mafia members during the Pathfinder game


Consulting an outside source?! You fiends, I should have you disqualified!!


I told them that I wouldn't share until the game was over.

Of course, you could always let me run the next one.
I smiled when the wall was built, for I knew we were creating something incredible. And I smiled when it cracked, for the world would soon see what we had wrought.
User avatar
Rick Healey
Puppetmaster
 
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:13 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

Re: Forum Mafia: Round 2

Postby narrativedilettante on Fri Jun 27, 2014 9:09 pm

Rick Healey wrote:Of course, you could always let me run the next one.


Or you could just start running one.

Who says the same group of people can't play multiple Mafia games at once? What could possibly go wrong.
Never put off until tomorrow what you can put off until the day after.
User avatar
narrativedilettante
Meta-Robin
 
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2012 11:07 am

Re: Forum Mafia: Round 2

Postby Krika on Fri Jun 27, 2014 9:37 pm

Eh, for simplicity's sake, I'd prefer to have only one game at a time, but that doesn't mean that Anura can't step down for a game or two and play like the rest of us.
Krika
>Narra has tiny jerk people in her socks.
>We are affirming our collective jerkhood by committing genocide on them.
Guyshane
>I'm going to read the logs and pray that that sentence makes more sense in context
>No
>No it does not
User avatar
Krika
 
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Home. I don't want to be.

Re: Forum Mafia: Round 2

Postby eli_gone_crazy on Fri Jun 27, 2014 10:30 pm

Let's have all of the mafia games :D
User avatar
eli_gone_crazy
 
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2012 4:59 pm

Re: Forum Mafia: Round 2

Postby Dryunya on Sat Jun 28, 2014 4:06 am

Rick Healey wrote:Dryu was ultimately too intent on establishing himself as town - he didn't make any sort of qualifying statements as to "if you trust me as town" or anything like that. Because he operated so intently on the prospect that he was town, he struck me as the most likely to be mafia.

The flip side to that, of course, was that this establishment meant that his intent to get rid of Sicon clearly meant that Sicon was a town member.


Umm. My logic was to make moves that Mafia would obviously not do. Apparently, it didn't work so well (See how well I'll be cooperating in the next round, harumph :evil: ), but the way I see it, it shouldn't have necessarily outed Sicon as town, because I didn't have to defend a town member. If anything, this might have put suspicion on Sicon after I was lynched (a good idea in hindsight, though that wasn't my intention).
I have attempted to suppress my inner hyperspace future gardener crying out against all the injustice I am committing.
User avatar
Dryunya
 
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2012 12:23 am

Re: Forum Mafia: Round 2

Postby Qara-Xuan Zenith on Sat Jun 28, 2014 3:31 pm

eli_gone_crazy wrote:Let's have all of the mafia games :D

:D

(Also, for the record, I did not ask Rick for his thoughts about anyone else-- I just asked him to tell me what (if any) roles he suspected I had. Of course, he refused.)
Lead by example. Get lost in a swamp.

AS DICTATED TO INSTANTIATION 17-01-18-01.
User avatar
Qara-Xuan Zenith
 
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2012 8:34 pm

Re: Forum Mafia: Round 2

Postby Rick Healey on Sat Jun 28, 2014 4:04 pm

Dryunya wrote:
Rick Healey wrote:Dryu was ultimately too intent on establishing himself as town - he didn't make any sort of qualifying statements as to "if you trust me as town" or anything like that. Because he operated so intently on the prospect that he was town, he struck me as the most likely to be mafia.

The flip side to that, of course, was that this establishment meant that his intent to get rid of Sicon clearly meant that Sicon was a town member.


Umm. My logic was to make moves that Mafia would obviously not do. Apparently, it didn't work so well (See how well I'll be cooperating in the next round, harumph :evil: ), but the way I see it, it shouldn't have necessarily outed Sicon as town, because I didn't have to defend a town member. If anything, this might have put suspicion on Sicon after I was lynched (a good idea in hindsight, though that wasn't my intention).


Well, that may have been your intention, but you subconsciously laid it on too thick. There admittedly is a strong sense of "I think he thinks they think..." in my logic; games of Mafia get pretty convoluted with the logic. Moreover, it pays to be a bit paranoid with how you present yourself; the more sure a mafia member is of being undercover, the more likely it is that they're about to be had.

As for putting suspicion on Sicon after your lynching... if anything, the fact that Anura confirmed you as mafia once you were lynched once and for all proved Sicon was innocent. Ideally, Pix should have tried to save Sicon that night - if that had happened, the mafia would have been on their heels and the town could have made a blazing comeback.

Anyhow, I'll start a new Mafia game in a new thread. I'll be conducting is a bit differently than Anura, but it'll still play out the same for your roles.
I smiled when the wall was built, for I knew we were creating something incredible. And I smiled when it cracked, for the world would soon see what we had wrought.
User avatar
Rick Healey
Puppetmaster
 
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:13 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

Re: Forum Mafia: Round 2

Postby Pixelmage on Sat Jun 28, 2014 4:25 pm

Well, you see, the thing about the doctor...

At first, I realized Dryu was being too upfront and helpful, which was suspicious but that's the thing: He's being helpful. Regardless of alignment, he's being involved in moving the game, so, I choose to keep him alive for the first night. If he's legitimately town and trying to help everyone, he's the easiest head to snipe right off the bat. Sure enough, my reading didn't save Xana and right the next morning Dryu turned out to be mafia.

Come step two, Sicon wasn't on the same team as Dryu. That much was clear since the first post Dryu made, so, why did I choose to protect eli over Sicon? It seemed like the obvious move for the doctor to go save Sicon, after all, but see, Sicon had played the silent warfare from the outset, he wasn't playing influence either way, so I figured that it'd be best to aim at the more active people first and take out those who were town and talkative. This had a few options: Dilly, Krika and eli, mainly. Out of the three, I figured that eli was most likely to be town, since her actual posts were all replies to other people's rather than anything initiating any sort of influence.

Cue Sicon dead, which to me felt like a waste of a mafia move, since he wasn't exactly rallying the torches and pitchforks and therefore wouldn't be an ideal target for night two.

Then, as per Rick's analysis, come day three I figured town was already in such a bad position that I might as well take the limiters off. I had to target Qara for self-defense, since otherwise I would be lynched, so there was always the chance that she might be town and we'd be in a no-win scenario, but one way or another I was already being targeted, if I wasn't lynched, I figured odds were good that I'd be killed during the night turn anyway. Nothing to lose means it's time to think the unthinkable, so I claimed doctor hoping Qara would turn out to be mafia and forcing the mafia to waste the night turn killing me or taking the risk of me successfully saving a townie and balancing the odds again by directing a second (hopefully successful) lynch.

So, basically, Death of Glory Attack. Turns out I died. :P
"Yami ni madoishi awarena kage yo
Hito o kizutsuke otoshimete,
Tsumi ni oboreshi gō no tama,
Ippen... shinde miru?"
User avatar
Pixelmage
 
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2012 2:08 pm
Location: Brazil

Re: Forum Mafia: Round 2

Postby Dryunya on Sat Jun 28, 2014 5:36 pm

Oh, and one more thing.
I thought of killing Vic (because he was inconspicuous like our other victims), but decided against it, because he wasn't voting. Next turn, he exposes most of us. :oops:
I have attempted to suppress my inner hyperspace future gardener crying out against all the injustice I am committing.
User avatar
Dryunya
 
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2012 12:23 am

Re: Forum Mafia: Round 2

Postby Victin on Sat Jun 28, 2014 6:25 pm

Dryunya wrote:Oh, and one more thing.
I thought of killing Vic (because he was inconspicuous like our other victims), but decided against it, because he wasn't voting. Next turn, he exposes most of us. :oops:

o.o May I take that as a compliment?
Dolphins are some of the smartest animals, yes, but by human standards… Let's say you should praise the god that forces them to stay handless and underwater.
User avatar
Victin
 
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2012 12:17 pm
Location: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Re: Forum Mafia: Round 2

Postby Dryunya on Sun Jun 29, 2014 12:08 am

You should, actually.
I have attempted to suppress my inner hyperspace future gardener crying out against all the injustice I am committing.
User avatar
Dryunya
 
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2012 12:23 am

Previous

Return to Off Topic

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron